Iran set to obtain Pantsyr via Syria
Robin Hughes JDW Deputy Editor
London
Iran is set to acquire at least 10 96K6 Pantsyr-S1E self-propelled short-range gun and missile air- defence systems as a derivative of a major deal struck between Syria and Russia earlier this year.
A source close to the deal told Jane's that Russia has agreed to sell Damascus "some 50 Pantsyr-S1E systems", with initial deliveries set to begin later in 2007. Syria is understood to be receiving the Pantsyr-S1E equipped with the latest Roman I-Band fire control radar.
While the source noted that most of the Pantsyrs are earmarked for the Syrian Air Defence Command, "the end user for 10 of the systems is Tehran". These should reach Iran, via Syria, in late 2008, the source told Jane's.
According to the source, Iran will part finance the Syrian acquisition along with payment for its own 10 systems to recompense Damascus for its compliance in the deal.
Syria is understood to have signed a contract with Russia, with an estimated value of USD730 million, for the supply of the Pantsyr-S1E. While Tehran has indicated to Damascus the urgency of the requirement, the source said that the 10 systems to be transferred will not be taken from the first ones supplied to Syria but from later deliveries. The source added Iran has also disclosed plans to acquire at least 50 Pantsyr-S1E systems and is currently now exploring potential options to realise this. He additionally confirmed that Iran has now acquired at least two longer-range S-300PMU-1/2 Favorit (SA-10c/d 'Grumble') air-defence systems.
Syrian consent to enable Iran to procure the Pantsyr-S1E systems through Syria is an implementation of the military and technological co-operation mechanism stipulated in a strategic accord signed by both countries in November 2005.
The financial details and estimated delivery timetable for the Syrian order were made available to the Iranians during a visit to Tehran in mid-April by a senior military delegation, headed by Major General Liwa Yahya Suleiman, commander of the Syrian Staff College and accompanied by a "very senior Syrian government official", the source said. Both met Iranian Defence Minister Mustafa Muhammad Najjar and commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi and signed several additional Memoranda of Understanding and co-operation agreements.
The source said that both sides agreed that when the first shipments of Pantsyr-S1E systems are delivered to Syria, specialists and senior officers from the Iranian Air Force's Air Defence Command will travel to Syria to familiarise themselves with the system.
"It was also agreed that some of the Iranian Air Force specialists will participate in instruction and training given to the Syrians on the Pantsyr system - including participation in future tests," the source said.
Moscow was subject to particular diplomatic pressure from Israel and the US for agreeing to supply Iran with the Tor-M1 (SA-15 'Gauntlet') road-mobile shelter-mounted low- to medium-altitude surface-to-air missile (SAM) system under a USD700 million contract signed in late 2005. That contract was completed in January this year.
According to the source, Tehran and Damascus are anxious not to subject Moscow to further criticism from the West. Jane's understands that both the Russian government and Pantsyr manufacturer KBP Instrument Design Bureau have officially not been made aware of the Syrian arrangement with Iran. However, the potential future requirement for any spare parts and or support will surely require external support.
Nevertheless, a UN member state knowingly party to such an arrangement could be in violation of the spirit of UN Security Council Resolution 1747, passed on 27 March.
Formulated in response to Iran's continued refusal to heed the call of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) call for full and sustained suspension of all uranium enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, the resolution imposes a ban on Iranian arms exports and freezes the assets of 28 additional officials and institutions involved in Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.
Further, under Article 6 of the resolution, member states are called on "to exercise vigilance and restraint in the supply, sale or transfer directly or indirectly from their territories or by their nationals or using their flag vessels or aircraft of any battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, large calibre artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missiles or missile systems as defined for the purpose of the UN Register on Conventional Arms to Iran, and in the provision to Iran of any technical assistance or training, financial assistance, investment, brokering or other services, and the transfer of financial resources or services, related to the supply, sale, transfer, manufacture or use of such items in order to prevent a destabilising accumulation of arms."
"The relatively small, but highly circuitous Iranian element of Syria's significant procurement deal obviates the potential for UN action under 1747," the source said. "Syria also gains from the process: it is generously compensated by Iran, in the form of Iranian finance of some of the Pantsyr-S1 systems destined for Syria."
To date, procurement agreements for the Pantsyr system in the region have been signed with the United Arab Emirates (which has part funded its development and ordered 50 systems under a USD734 million agreement signed in mid-2000), Syria and Jordan.
International diplomatic pressure on Tehran to suspend its enrichment programme has been accompanied by rumours of potential military action to ensure that Iran does not reach a stage at which it can acquire a military nuclear capability.
Faced with the possibility of an air strike against its nuclear infrastructure, Iran has increased its procurement, most notably from Russia, of advanced air defence systems, including the S-300PMU-1/2, 29 Tor M1 systems and the S-125M1 Pechora-2A (SA-3 'Goa') low-to-medium altitude air defence system. These have been deployed around Iran's most sensitive infrastructure, the source said.
Resolution 1747 gave Iran 60 days to cease uranium enrichment: a deadline that expires on 24 May. The stakes were raised on 13 May following a short-notice inspection by IAEA officials to Iran's main nuclear facility at Natanz. The IAEA previously confirmed on 19 April that Natanz was running more than 1,300 centrifuges in eight cascades but was understood to be having difficulty keeping the centrifuges spinning at the speeds necessary to make nuclear fuel and often was running them empty or not at all. The 13 May visit established that Natanz is now running the cascades at a level sufficient to produce fuel suitable for nuclear reactors.
"We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich," IAEA Director General Mohamed El Baradei told the New York Times on 14 May. "From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge.
"The fact of the matter is that one of the purposes of suspension - keeping them from getting the knowledge - has been overtaken by events. The focus now should be to stop them from going to industrial scale production, to allow us to do a full-court-press inspection and to be sure they remain inside the [Nuclear Non-Proliferation] treaty."
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22-05-2007, 10:25
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