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31-12-2007, 14:24
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חבר מתאריך: 16.09.06
הודעות: 4,878
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כתבה על "משמרות המהפכה" - Financial Times
הראיון מה 28 בדצמבר 2007, מקור.
הכתב בטהרן: נאג'מה בוזורגמהר (Najmeh Bozorgmehr)
הכתבה המלאה מצורפת למטה.
עיקרי הכתבה:
מוחמד עלי-ג'פרי הוא המפקד של משמרות המהפכה מאז ספטמבר האחרון התראיין וציין כי המשימה הראשית שבראייתו עומדת בפני משמרות המהפכה הוא דיכוי איומים מבית, מבחינתו כל פעילות חוץ צריכה להיות באחריות הצבא, שבמקרה הצורך ייעזר במשמרות המהפכה. הנוסף לכך הוא גם טען שהאיום הפנימי מורכב ואינטנסיבי מאי פעם.
במאמר הוזכרו מיעוטים אתניים בעלי שאיפות לעצמאות: כורדים, ערבים, באלוצ'ים ואזרים.
אחד השינויים בארגון המבני שהוא מתכוון לעשות הוא לאחד את הבאסיג' (Basij - גוף מתנדבים שעוסק בעיקר בשיטור פנימי, בדגש על מתנגדי המשטר) עם יתר הזרועות של משמרות המהפכה (הצבא, חיל הים, חיל האויר, כוחות קודס והזרוע הטילים האסטרטגיים של משמרות המהפכה).
התכנון העתידי הוא להגדיל את הבאסיג' לכ-20 מיליון ולחזק אותו (למרות שע"פ ההצהרות כיום רק רבע עד שליש מכוחות הבאסיג' זכו לאימון צבאי כלשהו).
משמרות המהפכה (ללא הבאסיג') מונות כ- 125,000 לוחמים, וכוללות את כוחות קודס, המהווים את הזרוע המעשית של "ייצוא המהפכה" ומונים אלפים בודדים של לוחמים (בתוכם רובם בחיזבאללה, עירק, קשמיר ובמסגרת כוח האו"ם באריתריה-אתיופיה).
במהלך השנה האחרונה הבאסיג' עצרו מאות סטודנטים, פמניסיטיות, חברי ארגונים לא ממשלתיים, אקדמאים, מורים ופועלים שהשתתפו בהפגנות או היו בקשרים עם גורמים מתנגדי שלטון בחו"ל. החשש המועלה בכתבה היא ששילוב הבאסיג' לתוך משמרות המהפכה יחמיר את רמת הדיכוי הפוליטי ויביא לאימון צבאי מקיף יותר של כוחות הבאסיג'.
Iran's elite military force fears security threat from within
By Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran
Published: December 28 2007 02:00 | Last updated: December 28 2007 02:00
It has been accused of playing a role in arming Shia militia in Iraq and threatened with being labelled a "terrorist organisation" by the US, but Iran's Revolutionary Guard - the country's elite military force - believes that domestic security threats represent a much greater danger to the country than the international crisis surrounding its nuclear programme.
Mohammad-Ali Jafari, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, said shortly after he took his new job in September: "The main mission of the guards is currently fighting domestic threats and in case there is a foreign threat we will join the [conventional] army."
To that end he has embarked on a so-called "structural reform" in the guards, part of which is to integrate the Basij Resistance Force - the 12.5m-strong volunteer force which had operated as a separate arm of the Guards - more closely into its operations.
Located in 70,000 bases in government organisations, mosques and universities Basij members, the eyes and ears of the Islamic republic, act as custodians of the 1979 revolution. Their influence in the recruitment into the organisations where they are based means they are viewed by some as intimidating forces.
Mr Jafari has taken overall responsibility for the Basij, having removed the former head of the force. He hopes it will almost double in strength to 20m members in the next decade although analysts say that at the moment just 3m are military-trained.
The 125,000-strong IRGC consist of land, naval and air forces and two separate arms - the Basij unit and Quds Brigade. The latter is comprised of a few thousand well-trained forces involved in overseas operations. But the backbone of the IRGC is its land force.
Supporting a stronger role for the Basij, Kayhan newspaper, a mouthpiece for fundamentalists, last month said: "The biggest threats against the future of the regime from now on have a soft nature in which domestic players have a key role." Hosein Taeb, a deputy head of Basij, lists the threats as "a 'velvet revolution', political invasion and penetration into the ruling system [a clear reference to reformists]".
This year, the regime has arrested hundreds of students, feminists, NGO activists, academics, teachers and labourers for taking part in rallies or for allegedly having links with opponents of the regime outside the country. Many have been released but the arrests have created an intimidating atmosphere.
A greater role for the Revolutionary Guard in the Basij has led some to fear a fresh clampdown on internal dissent. Going under the direct command of Mr Jafari will probably include more training on how to monitor and curb domestic unrest.
Iran also faces separatist moves by Kurds, Arabs, Baluchis and to a lesser extent Azeris in border provinces.
Iran has accused the US of being behind some ethnic unrest.
Warning that threats against the Islamic regime have become "more complicated and extensive than before", Mr Jafari has said that the change in the Basij is backed by Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is chief commander of armed forces and has the last say in state affairs.
"[The] supreme leader has concerns for the future of this country, while he doesn't trust urban forces [groups seeking social change], intellectuals and technocrats," said one analyst.
"He has pinned his hopes on two forces: the masses for who he has prescribed social justice and the revolutionary guards who are his means to carry out his policies and foil threats."
Fundamentalists believe some reformists behave as the fifth column for the enemy inside the country and have to be banned from any political activity including forthcoming parliamentary elections in March.
Although the constitution bans armed forces from involvement in politics, many reformists allege Basij forces were mobilised to support President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad when he won the 2005 election, encouraging people to vote for him.
"The meaningful involvement of the IRGC in politics started as of 1997 when [former reformist president Mohammad] Khatami was elected, something [political involvement] didn't exist before or was very weak," said another analyst.
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A nation is a society united by delusions about its ancestry and by common hatred of its neighbors - William Ralph
מדינת ישראל תיבחן לא בעושר, לא בצבא ולא בטכניקה, אלא בדמותה המוסרית ובערכייה האנושיים - בן-גוריון
Give a man fire, and he will be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he will be worm for the rest of his life...
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