כתבה מעניינת של INSTITUTE OF THE MIDDLE EAST על המצב העדכני בסוריה. לדברי הכותב, נכון לעכשיו ידו של אסד על העליונה בין היתר בגלל שיתוף פעולה עם הכורדים.
להלן תרגום של גוגל לאנגלית (עמכם הסליחה).
Syria: the Assad regime to seize the initiative
Yu.B.Scheglovin
The Syrian leadership begins to seize the initiative from the opposition. After failing to organize a "free zone" in Homs with a view to its expansion, the rebels began to retreat into the mountains, and their formal leader, the commander of the Syrian army of the Free (PAS)-Asaad R.Aliyev admitted that beginning stage of "guerrilla warfare". At the same time he called the outcome of the insurgents from the city, "tactical regrouping of forces." To call a spade a spade, it is poorly organized and the forced retreat of disparate groups, including those in neighboring Lebanon. It does not seem to "tactical regrouping," but rather - to withdraw from the environment.
With what now faces an armed wing of the opposition? Let's start with the fact that virtually no vertical control units. Many of them arise spontaneously as a sort of elements of "self" and do not have a connection not only with the command of the SSA in Turkey, but often among themselves. However, many field commanders, at best, have heard of the SSA, but anything to do with this structure does not have. The troops are mainly formed on a geographical basis and operate in areas densely populated by the majority of men of a particular group.
As a consequence, equipping, financing and the choice of tactics entirely at the discretion of a warlord. Weapons are mainly purchased in the country in the military or smugglers. At the same time prices for ammunition and weapons "black market" is seriously increased, the Syrians are actively arming themselves. It should be noted that the vast majority does so only in self-defense, not to fight with government troops. Thus most of the military opposition groups in deficit of arms and ammunition, which hinders an objective increase in the number of militants.
The relationship between the Syrian national council (SNA) and the SSA is still in its infancy. "Civil" coordinating committees on the ground, at best, maintain contact with the local detachment of "self" (with the exception of Homs and Deraa), so to build a vertical control through a "civilian" component of the opposition is also challenging. How will the organization in case of SNA, "military office", which should coordinate the interaction between the units, time will tell, but so far it seems very difficult task. Especially considering the fact that the new "Office" plans to take over the duty to select candidates for the armed forces, to put under complete control of the procurement process and supply the rebels with arms and ammunition; organize cooperation "with foreign military experts." How to apply this perspective, potential sponsors in the face of opposition to the Arab monarchies and Ankara, as well as the PAS leadership itself. still hard to say. Note that "the Gulfs" recognized as a major force is the SSA, not SNA. In any case, the problem of the subordination of the armed groups is now a major challenge for chiefs SNS B.Galyuna.
Seriously complicates the life of the rebels and the new tactics of the Syrian authorities to "the Kurdish area." Mode went on to an agreement with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its subsidiaries on Syrian territory. RPK was virtually complete carte blanche to conduct law enforcement actions against the opposition in the northern part of Syria, and city Qamishli, Afrin and Al-Arab is actually placed under control of Kurdish forces. They organize roadblocks, conduct activities to the arrest and search of the opposition. At the same technique applies a small group terror and assassinations of opponents. At the same time syrian Kurds were unprecedented in the past (while unofficially) autonomy, including the right to open their own schools. This version of events was predictable: you have to pay for their loyalty. In Aleppo by the tactics of the actual transfer of power in the hands of the local mafia clans managed to bring down the emerging urban unrest.
Clearly, this is not pleased with Ankara. It is possible that this is a settlement in the hope of a probable Turkish military operation in the border areas, such as the stronghold of the PKK on the Syrian territory will play the role of "logistical base" for the Kurds who are fighting in Turkey, in the very near future. Currently, the Syrian propaganda in full voice spins the thesis of the "Turkish intervention" in inside the Syrian case, and the SSA qualifies as a "puppet of Ankara." It is no accident, since the ratio of the overwhelming majority of Syrians to the prospect of a military operation of Turkish troops in Syria just a very negative due to historical and territorial disputes between countries. Log Turkish troops in Syria, in addition to activation of the Kurds, and will change the status of the Syrian regime, which will change from "repressive regime" in the "defender", and it may have an adverse impact on the ideological component of the protest movement.
ראשי
צ'אט
08-08-2011, 11:59
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